2024 Pre-Election Race Rankings

We ranked every race to win in ’24 to ensure Democrats had the largest bang for their buck from your political donations.
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Pennsylvania
New York 22
Colorado 8
AL-2
California 13
Arizona House
Yadira Caraveo
Our algorithm takes the emotion and guesswork out of political donations, ensuring Democratic donors can put their money to work in the races most likely to give Democrats control of legislative bodies and impact ballot initiatives.
Check out our blog for the latest data on recount races where Democrats can still win & need support.
Top Impact Races by Category
Top Impact Races Flip the US House Presidential Battleground States Abortion on the State Ballot Hold the US Senate

Abortion on the State Ballot

Abortion on the State Ballot

High impact
Medium
Low impact
Importance of this race
District trends
Dollar Impact
95
Impact
The Impact Score is an overall ranking of the impact and importance of each race. A higher score indicates higher importance for Dems to win. Securing Dem control in state and federal government not only ensures policy goals but also protects democracy via election certification, judicial nominations & more. Scores do not rate or rank specific candidates.
AZ State House - 17
Arizona
Arizona State House majority
Importance of this race
District trends
Dollar Impact
Target
status
Flip
Chamber
status
Chamber status indicates which party controls the majority in the chamber and therefore, also controls the legislation that will or will not be voted on. A higher score indicates Dems ability to hold or secure control of a chamber.
29
31
District
vote trends
District Vote Trend shows the winning vote totals over previous election cycles and which party is gaining or losing ground. The more volatility, the higher ability the impact.
Winning Vote Total
32,297 in 2014
Winning Vote Total
51,712 in 2016
Winning Vote Total
46,874 in 2018
Winning Vote Total
65,172 in 2020
Winning Vote Total
60,541 in 2022
Previously
won by
How close the race was in its last election. The closer the race, the more ability to impact.
0.5%
Typical cost
of race
How much was raised in total by the candidates in the race in its last election. This is compared to average dollars raised in each chamber.
$$
Donation
impact
How impactful $1 additional would be if raised in the race as compared with other races in the same chamber ie, US Senate compared against other US Senate races.
High+
What's at Stake
REPs have the majority in the Arizona State House and have 31 seats of 60 total, with 0 open. DEMs must flip 2 seats majority to secure the majority in the next election. In the Arizona State House, there are 26 races within 5 points that are up for election in the next election. REPs have the majority in the State Senate, with a DEM in the Governor.
94
Impact
The Impact Score is an overall ranking of the impact and importance of each race. A higher score indicates higher importance for Dems to win. Securing Dem control in state and federal government not only ensures policy goals but also protects democracy via election certification, judicial nominations & more. Scores do not rate or rank specific candidates.
AZ State House - 28
Arizona
Arizona State House majority
Importance of this race
District trends
Dollar Impact
Target
status
Flip
Chamber
status
Chamber status indicates which party controls the majority in the chamber and therefore, also controls the legislation that will or will not be voted on. A higher score indicates Dems ability to hold or secure control of a chamber.
29
31
District
vote trends
District Vote Trend shows the winning vote totals over previous election cycles and which party is gaining or losing ground. The more volatility, the higher ability the impact.
Winning Vote Total
37,054 in 2014
Winning Vote Total
49,139 in 2016
Winning Vote Total
48,003 in 2018
Winning Vote Total
60,871 in 2020
Winning Vote Total
68,965 in 2022
Previously
won by
How close the race was in its last election. The closer the race, the more ability to impact.
1.1%
Typical cost
of race
How much was raised in total by the candidates in the race in its last election. This is compared to average dollars raised in each chamber.
$$
Donation
impact
How impactful $1 additional would be if raised in the race as compared with other races in the same chamber ie, US Senate compared against other US Senate races.
High+
What's at Stake
REPs have the majority in the Arizona State House and have 31 seats of 60 total, with 0 open. DEMs must flip 2 seats majority to secure the majority in the next election. In the Arizona State House, there are 26 races within 5 points that are up for election in the next election. REPs have the majority in the State Senate, with a DEM in the Governor.
93
Impact
The Impact Score is an overall ranking of the impact and importance of each race. A higher score indicates higher importance for Dems to win. Securing Dem control in state and federal government not only ensures policy goals but also protects democracy via election certification, judicial nominations & more. Scores do not rate or rank specific candidates.
AZ State House - 27
Arizona
Arizona State House majority
Importance of this race
District trends
Dollar Impact
Target
status
Flip
Chamber
status
Chamber status indicates which party controls the majority in the chamber and therefore, also controls the legislation that will or will not be voted on. A higher score indicates Dems ability to hold or secure control of a chamber.
29
31
District
vote trends
District Vote Trend shows the winning vote totals over previous election cycles and which party is gaining or losing ground. The more volatility, the higher ability the impact.
Winning Vote Total
16,576 in 2014
Winning Vote Total
37,701 in 2016
Winning Vote Total
31,521 in 2018
Winning Vote Total
48,039 in 2020
Winning Vote Total
40,249 in 2022
Previously
won by
How close the race was in its last election. The closer the race, the more ability to impact.
0.01%
Typical cost
of race
How much was raised in total by the candidates in the race in its last election. This is compared to average dollars raised in each chamber.
$$
Donation
impact
How impactful $1 additional would be if raised in the race as compared with other races in the same chamber ie, US Senate compared against other US Senate races.
High+
What's at Stake
REPs have the majority in the Arizona State House and have 31 seats of 60 total, with 0 open. DEMs must flip 2 seats majority to secure the majority in the next election. In the Arizona State House, there are 26 races within 5 points that are up for election in the next election. REPs have the majority in the State Senate, with a DEM in the Governor.
93
Impact
The Impact Score is an overall ranking of the impact and importance of each race. A higher score indicates higher importance for Dems to win. Securing Dem control in state and federal government not only ensures policy goals but also protects democracy via election certification, judicial nominations & more. Scores do not rate or rank specific candidates.
AZ State House - 11
Arizona
Importance of this race
District trends
Dollar Impact
Target
status
Hold
Chamber
status
Chamber status indicates which party controls the majority in the chamber and therefore, also controls the legislation that will or will not be voted on. A higher score indicates Dems ability to hold or secure control of a chamber.
29
31
District
vote trends
District Vote Trend shows the winning vote totals over previous election cycles and which party is gaining or losing ground. The more volatility, the higher ability the impact.
Winning Vote Total
36,732 in 2014
Winning Vote Total
52,509 in 2016
Winning Vote Total
48,676 in 2018
Winning Vote Total
68,805 in 2020
Winning Vote Total
30,524 in 2022
Previously
won by
How close the race was in its last election. The closer the race, the more ability to impact.
0.69%
Typical cost
of race
How much was raised in total by the candidates in the race in its last election. This is compared to average dollars raised in each chamber.
$$
Donation
impact
How impactful $1 additional would be if raised in the race as compared with other races in the same chamber ie, US Senate compared against other US Senate races.
High+
What's at Stake
REPs have the majority in the Arizona State House and have 31 seats of 60 total, with 0 open. DEMs must flip 2 seats majority to secure the majority in the next election. In the Arizona State House, there are 26 races within 5 points that are up for election in the next election. REPs have the majority in the State Senate, with a DEM in the Governor.
93
Impact
The Impact Score is an overall ranking of the impact and importance of each race. A higher score indicates higher importance for Dems to win. Securing Dem control in state and federal government not only ensures policy goals but also protects democracy via election certification, judicial nominations & more. Scores do not rate or rank specific candidates.
AZ State House - 29
Arizona
Arizona State House majority
Importance of this race
District trends
Dollar Impact
Target
status
Flip
Chamber
status
Chamber status indicates which party controls the majority in the chamber and therefore, also controls the legislation that will or will not be voted on. A higher score indicates Dems ability to hold or secure control of a chamber.
29
31
District
vote trends
District Vote Trend shows the winning vote totals over previous election cycles and which party is gaining or losing ground. The more volatility, the higher ability the impact.
Winning Vote Total
10,127 in 2014
Winning Vote Total
25,564 in 2016
Winning Vote Total
23,631 in 2018
Winning Vote Total
38,818 in 2020
Winning Vote Total
46,831 in 2022
Previously
won by
How close the race was in its last election. The closer the race, the more ability to impact.
0.93%
Typical cost
of race
How much was raised in total by the candidates in the race in its last election. This is compared to average dollars raised in each chamber.
$$
Donation
impact
How impactful $1 additional would be if raised in the race as compared with other races in the same chamber ie, US Senate compared against other US Senate races.
High+
What's at Stake
REPs have the majority in the Arizona State House and have 31 seats of 60 total, with 0 open. DEMs must flip 2 seats majority to secure the majority in the next election. In the Arizona State House, there are 26 races within 5 points that are up for election in the next election. REPs have the majority in the State Senate, with a DEM in the Governor.
92
Impact
The Impact Score is an overall ranking of the impact and importance of each race. A higher score indicates higher importance for Dems to win. Securing Dem control in state and federal government not only ensures policy goals but also protects democracy via election certification, judicial nominations & more. Scores do not rate or rank specific candidates.
AZ State House - 4
Arizona
Arizona State House majority
Importance of this race
District trends
Dollar Impact
Target
status
Flip
Chamber
status
Chamber status indicates which party controls the majority in the chamber and therefore, also controls the legislation that will or will not be voted on. A higher score indicates Dems ability to hold or secure control of a chamber.
29
31
District
vote trends
District Vote Trend shows the winning vote totals over previous election cycles and which party is gaining or losing ground. The more volatility, the higher ability the impact.
Winning Vote Total
13,324 in 2014
Winning Vote Total
29,755 in 2016
Winning Vote Total
26,541 in 2018
Winning Vote Total
40,797 in 2020
Winning Vote Total
61,527 in 2022
Previously
won by
How close the race was in its last election. The closer the race, the more ability to impact.
1.26%
Typical cost
of race
How much was raised in total by the candidates in the race in its last election. This is compared to average dollars raised in each chamber.
$$$
Donation
impact
How impactful $1 additional would be if raised in the race as compared with other races in the same chamber ie, US Senate compared against other US Senate races.
High+
What's at Stake
REPs have the majority in the Arizona State House and have 31 seats of 60 total, with 0 open. DEMs must flip 2 seats majority to secure the majority in the next election. In the Arizona State House, there are 26 races within 5 points that are up for election in the next election. REPs have the majority in the State Senate, with a DEM in the Governor.

Flip the States Fall 2024 Report

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What is your Mission?
Everyday we read news, blogs and follow pundits telling us which candidates need our help to save democracy. The question we ask is did my donation go to the right candidate that can win and make a difference in the issues I care about? The answer was simple, rank donating to every race based on impact. Simple in theory, at least. We wanted a tool that measures abilty to win, impact of dollars raised, and the importance of winning that race. A tool that collects info from all 50 states on every race and puts the power of choosing who to support back in the hands of the people. With Flip the States, you and we can feel confident that our donated dollars are going to where they are needed the most, to accomplish the most. Together we can Flip the States with as many seats as possible for Democrats, the one party standing up for democracy.
How do you measure Impact?
We focus on 3 areas: (1) ability for a Dem to win the race, (2) Impact of more dollars raised, (3) overall importance of winning the race for Democratic control of a chamber, state legislature or other. Our Impact Score algorithm includes more than two dozen factors including district voting trends, incumbency, dollars raised, redistricting, chamber control, supermajority or trifecta control and more. Most importantly, we give you the transparent info along side our Impact Score so you can make an informed decision about your dollars.
Does a lower score mean I shouldn’t donate to a race?
Absolutely not. This only means that, according to our Impact Score, your dollars could go farther in other races. However, we know that grassroots donations are important for every race and candidate. We also know your donations are impacted by your personal priorities, which is why we give you different ways to look at the rankings depending on what you care about, and a way to search for a specific race. We also believe candidates, specific policy priorities and more do and should impact how you donate. Our goal is to ensure you can start with an informed choice about your grassroots support.
Does a lower score mean a race isn’t winnable?
No. In fact, some races have low scores because they are safe for Dems. We also know candidates matter. A poor Republican or Democratic candidate can strongly impact the potential to win a race. Impact scores don’t rank candidates. Impact scores identify the best race opportunities overall, for a particular state, chamber or other.
What levels of government do you include?
We include rankings for the US House and US Senate, State Senates and State Lower Chambers, called State Houses or Assembly, for all 50 states. This translates to literally thousands of races in every election cycle. We hope to add Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State races in the future. So far, we have data on more than 41,000+ races and 79,000+ candidates, and more are being added every day.
Why should I care whether Democrats win in other states. Can’t I assume that doesn’t impact me?
Unfortunately you can’t assume that policies or legislators in other states won’t impact you. In 2020, we saw that fake elector schemes in multiple states threatened the certification of the President. State legislators control district gerrymandering, voting laws and election certification, all of which impact who is elected to our federal government, which affects us all. In addition, states advance policies every day that impact other states. For example, when a state enacts anti-abortion policies, women flea to other states to get women’s healthcare support, yielding costs and demands on those states. And don't forget about judges. Federal and even state judges appointed in other states are now regularly making rulings that impact all states. Each example tells us we can no longer ignore what is happening in other states.
How many races and election cycles are included in your data?
We currently have compiled data related to more than 41,000+ races and going back to election data from 2012. We continue to add more election data everyday to make our model and Impact Score results more robust.
Why does holding a Democrat majority in a chamber matter?
Holding a Dem majority in a state or federal chamber ensures that Democrats control the policy agenda for that chamber. Even a Dem majority in only one chamber in a state ensures more moderate legislation and policy. As important, the US Senate and most State Senates select and confirm judges, including Supreme Court justices in the US Senate. A majority in these Senate chambers ensures Dems control judicial nominations and confirmations.
What is a trifecta?
A trifecta is a single party controlling all three parts of elected government in a state or at the federal level. Ex: TX holds a trifecta with a Republican Governor and Republican majorities in the TX State House and TX State Senate. Similarly, Democrats hold a trifecta in California.
Why do supermajorities matter?
Each state defines a supermajority requirement for each chamber, sometimes it is ⅔, sometimes ⅗ depending on the state. If a supermajority is achieved in both chambers in a state, the legislature can override a veto by a Governor. This is the exact case in North Carolina currently, in which there is a one seat supermajority for Republicans in both the NC State House and State Senate; the result has been multiple times that these supermajorities have passed extreme policies, including on voting policies, which were vetoed by the Dem Governor, only to pass them into law with their 1 seat supermajority in both chambers.

Who We Are:

The Flip the States Team are small dollar Democrats trying to make a difference for our democracy. We've written postcards, joined local community groups, volunteered and door knocked, and made small dollar donations, just like you. We aren't political insiders, but we know data and we know our small actions add up. And we wanted to know where those small efforts could make the biggest impact.

Flip the States doesn't predict outcomes with polls and we don't pick candidates; we rank race opportunities.

Join our community, send us your feedback at vote@flipthestates.com and let us know how we can help you to make your small difference. We are in this together.

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