{"id":1470,"date":"2026-10-24T04:03:02","date_gmt":"2026-10-24T04:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/?p=1470"},"modified":"2026-10-25T04:19:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-25T04:19:17","slug":"midterms-get-out-of-your-bubble-261024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/midterms-get-out-of-your-bubble-261024\/","title":{"rendered":"Midterms: Get Out of Your Bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There’s plenty of outrage so we aren’t going to do that. Instead, we’re creating a place with new tips, tools, insights, sources, and stories that can help us understand how to win this November.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\ud83e\udd2c<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump just previewed exactly how he plans to hold Congress if he loses it: refuse to certify the results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eleven days before Alaskans vote, the Department of Justice\u00a0sued the state<\/a>\u00a0to block certification of the Senate race if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola, citing supposed voter confusion over a second, unrelated candidate who happens to share his name. Trump didn’t even pretend otherwise, telling reporters \u201cI’m the one that said \u2018do it.\u2019\u201d This is the dress rehearsal for November: when Republicans can’t win on the merits, the plan is to make the count itself the battlefield, which means every closely watched race on our board needs a legal and communications plan for contesting a contest, not just a turnout plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\ud83d\udcb0\ud83d\udcb0\ud83d\udcb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATTACK THE REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’re running ads against the most vulnerable Republicans in the country and it’s working! For as little as $300, we can reach 15,000 voters on social media. We only target in district Independents and frustrated Republicans with our ads on Instagram and Facebook and the comments prove they agree with our ads! We can take power together. Support our campaign now.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Donate to Flip the States, Support Our Work<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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\ud83d\udea8\ud83e\udd73<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

House Republicans are already fighting over who gets blamed for losing, and that fight tells us more than any ad buy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Puck reports<\/a>\u00a0that Majority Leader Steve Scalise is quietly building support to challenge Jim Jordan for Minority Leader, a bet that’s only worth making if your own leadership expects to hand us the gavel. That internal sorting matters for our target seats: a Scalise-style leadership, more institutionalist and deal-making, would apply different pressure to vulnerable incumbents than a Jordan-aligned bloc that rewards total loyalty to Trump even in a loss. Watching who wins that fight after November tells us which Republicans in our competitive districts will have cover to work with a Democratic majority, and which ones will be told to dig in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\ud83d\ude31<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategists are now calling this the worst political environment for Republicans in twenty years, and that’s the inspiration we need as long as we don’t mistake it for a guarantee.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On\u00a0Pod Save America<\/a>, Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter said Republican spending couldn’t outrun Trump’s cost-of-living crisis and the war in Iran, debating whether we’re looking at a blue wave or just a \u201cred undertow.\u201d Good numbers don’t flip seats, resourced campaigns in the right districts do, which is the entire reason FTS exists: to put dollars behind the races where this environment actually converts into a flipped seat, instead of letting it evaporate in races that were never competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\ud83d\udcb0\ud83d\udcb0\ud83d\udcb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATTACK THE REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’re running ads against the most vulnerable Republicans in the country and it’s working! For as little as $300, we can reach 15,000 voters on social media. We only target in district Independents and frustrated Republicans with our ads on Instagram and Facebook and the comments prove they agree with our ads! We can take power together. Support our campaign now.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Donate to Flip the States, Support Our Work<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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\ud83d\ude2c<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The voters who can actually swing our target races are already regretting their 2024 vote, but regret alone doesn’t win elections.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A focus group highlighted by\u00a0Puck<\/a>\u00a0found Black and Latino men who backed Trump in 2024 now souring on him over inflation, the Iran war, and ICE raids in their neighborhoods, yet still unwilling to commit to Democrats. That’s the single most important data point in this cycle: disappointment with Trump is not automatically a vote for us, it’s an opening we have to close with a direct economic and safety message in exactly the competitive districts our impact score is built to find. Candidates who treat these voters as gettable, rather than assuming anger at Trump does the work for them, are the ones who move these seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\ud83d\ude2c<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The map isn’t just purple districts anymore, it’s Trump voters in deep-red states starting to listen.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On\u00a0The Focus Group podcast<\/a>, The Atlantic’s Elaine Godfrey told Sarah Longwell about traveling with Iowa’s leading Democratic candidates and finding Trump voters there, plus in Mississippi, Nebraska, and South Carolina, newly open to Democrats, not because they’ve abandoned their politics, but because specific candidates are meeting them on cost of living and competence instead of ideology. That’s the lesson for every race on our board, not just the long-shot red-state bids: the opening isn’t \u201cconvert a Republican,\u201d it’s \u201cgive a frustrated voter a reason to trust one specific person,\u201d and the candidates doing that are the ones outrunning the generic ballot. If Iowa and Mississippi are suddenly competitive, every seat with a 90-plus impact score is more winnable than the national mood alone would suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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If you like what we’re doing, please share Flip the States with a friend and ask them to sign up so they get analysis and recommendations like these. If you love what we are doing, send us a donation<\/a> to help fund the work. We’re a registered 501c4 nonprofit and never take from donations that go directly to the candidates you choose to support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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There’s plenty of outrage so we aren’t going to do that. Instead, we’re creating a place with new tips, tools, insights, sources, and stories that can help us understand how to win this November. \ud83e\udd2c Trump just previewed exactly how he plans to hold Congress if he loses it: refuse to certify the results. Eleven …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1488,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2026-midterms","category-get-out-of-your-bubble"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1470","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1470"}],"version-history":[{"count":27,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1470\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1505,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1470\/revisions\/1505"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1470"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1470"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1470"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}