{"id":1287,"date":"2026-09-27T14:37:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-27T14:37:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/?p=1287"},"modified":"2026-09-28T15:02:44","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T15:02:44","slug":"midterms-get-out-of-your-bubble-260927","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/midterms-get-out-of-your-bubble-260927\/","title":{"rendered":"Midterms: Get Out of Your Bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There’s plenty of outrage so we aren’t going to do that. Instead, we’re creating a place with new tips, tools, insights, sources, and stories that can help us understand how to win this November.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\ude2c\ud83d\udcaa<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The nonpartisan number-crunchers just caught up to what our impact scores have been telling us all year: the House is winnable, and the map is tipping our way.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Cook Political Report’s new ratings<\/a> shifted 15 House races toward Democrats this week, moving Arizona’s 1st and New Jersey’s 7th from toss-up to lean-Democrat. We’re so glad they caught up with us – we’ve had these races listed as 80+ Impact Score races all year<\/a>, which means they have always been in our top target list to flip. We need a net of just three seats to take the House, and Cook’s own district-level polling shows Dems up 49-47 in the 37 most competitive districts on the map \u2014 driven almost entirely by Trump’s underwater economic approval dragging down the House Republicans standing next to him. This is exactly the theory our impact-score algorithm was built on: don’t chase the headlines, chase the districts where the fundamentals are actually moving, and right now those are the ones we’ve already flagged as our top targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcb0\ud83d\udcb0\ud83d\udcb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATTACK THE REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’re running ads against the most vulnerable Republicans in the country and it’s working! For as little as $300, we can reach 15,000 voters on social media. We only target in district Independents and frustrated Republicans with our ads on Instagram and Facebook and the comments prove they agree with our ads!\u00a0We can take power together. Support our campaign now.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
Donate to Flip the States, Support Our Work<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udea8\ud83d\udcb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Susan Collins didn’t survive a corruption investigation \u2014 Trump’s FBI made sure there never was one, and that’s a much better story for us than any ad we could write ourselves.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bulwark Daily’s breakdown with Stuart Stevens<\/a><\/u>\u00a0digs into\u00a0ProPublica’s reporting<\/a>\u00a0that the FBI was building a pay-to-play case against Collins over campaign donations from defense contractor Navatek and its former CEO \u2014 until Trump’s purge of DOJ corruption prosecutors killed the probe in 2025. Collins is calling it a “political hit job” tied to old, cleared allegations, but the claims driving the investigation ran through 2024, and it only died after Trump’s team fired the agents working it. Maine is exactly the kind of race where a corruption story either breaks through in the next six weeks or it doesn’t, and right now it’s the difference between a toss-up and a hold. Not only does Stuart Stevens talk Maine, but also a topline state of the race, advice for Dems to close out the race and some stretch races where you wouldn’t believe Dems may actually have a chance- think Mississippi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\ude31<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When vulnerable Republicans start running ads promising to end Trump’s own war, the coalition is cracking under its own weight.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

CNN’s reporting this week<\/a>\u00a0caught Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany, Ohio’s Jon Husted, and Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers all breaking publicly with Trump on the Iran war, and seven House Republicans \u2014 up from four over the summer \u2014 have now joined Democrats on a resolution to end U.S. involvement. Only 26% of Americans approve of how Trump has handled the war, and gas prices are doing the rest of the talking in these candidates’ own districts. For us, this is opposition research on a silver platter: but we can’t take a win for granted. We have to ensure these Republicans are punished for their votes and kicked out – and\u00a0you can support us doing that as we run attack ads against the most vulnerable Republicans in the country.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcb0\ud83d\udcb0\ud83d\udcb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATTACK THE REPUBLICANS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’re running ads against the most vulnerable Republicans in the country and it’s working! For as little as $300, we can reach 15,000 voters on social media. We only target in district Independents and frustrated Republicans with our ads on Instagram and Facebook and the comments prove they agree with our ads!\u00a0We can take power together. Support our campaign now.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
Donate to Flip the States, Support Our Work<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcaa<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Blue Wave isn’t hypothetical anymore \u2014 it’s already showing up in real elections, not just polls.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brookings’ new analysis<\/a><\/u>\u00a0finds Democrats holding a 6-point generic ballot lead, and in the six 2025-26 special House elections held so far, Democratic candidates have overperformed by an average of 15 points \u2014 with New Jersey and Virginia’s governor’s races overperforming by 14. Historically, when the out-party holds an early Fall lead like this one, it has netted between 31 and 63 House seats. We only need three to flip control. The takeaway isn’t complacency \u2014 it’s precision: the environment is already primed for a Democratic majority, so the only thing standing between us and taking power is whether donor dollars actually land in the districts where they’ll decide the outcome, instead of the safe, comfortable races that make us feel better without changing the math.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you like what we’re doing, please share Flip the States with a friend and ask them to sign up so they get analysis and recommendations like these. If you love what we are doing, send us a donation<\/a> to help fund the work. We’re a registered 501c4 nonprofit and never take from donations that go directly to the candidates you choose to support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Share Flip the States with a Friend<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
Donate to Flip the States, Support Our Work<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There’s plenty of outrage so we aren’t going to do that. Instead, we’re creating a place with new tips, tools, insights, sources, and stories that can help us understand how to win this November. \ud83d\ude2c\ud83d\udcaa The nonpartisan number-crunchers just caught up to what our impact scores have been telling us all year: the House is …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1296,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2026-midterms","category-get-out-of-your-bubble"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1287","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1287"}],"version-history":[{"count":37,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1287\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1333,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1287\/revisions\/1333"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1287"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1287"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flipthestates.com\/pages\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}