How did we get to a place where a WI Supreme Court seat was worth national attention? I can tell you because I grew up in Wisconsin.
My first 18-years were spent in its rural countryside amongst the corn and cows. The fall there was always my favorite. Fiery red and brunt orange blended into a perfect brush of colors over its rolling green hills. It certainly was idyllic, but childhood also sparred me the reality of the largest town to us, a midwest stronghold of car manufacturing in the 70s and 80s. It was car manufacturing that brought my family to Wisconsin in fact. By the 90s, the car companies were already moving their manufacturing out but it’s very real to say NAFTA accelerated this and our town, like many others in WI, felt it. After job losses and abandoned car plants, our town, like my Dad, luckily tranesitioned away from cars better than so many others in the midwest. Looking back, it’s also clear that this was the start of Wisconsin’s shift.
Wisconsin was never a hard-right red state, but you wouldn’t know that from the last 15 years of its state government. Wisconsin had already been drifting right, but in 2010, Wisconsin voters, like much of the country, wiped out state Democrats and made a hard turn, voting in a Republican Governor and state legislature. No one knew it then, but thanks to a combination of the most sophisticated gerrymandering operation in the country and a skewed WI Supreme Court, Democrats would be boxed out of state majorities for another decade. I had long left Wisconsin by this point but was still following it closely through the eyes of family – Republicans were openly declaring that WI was its test case: could they openly gerrymander, openly attack unions, openly use any means to secure and maintain power. And the answer was yes, it largely worked.
Despite regular state-wide wins by Democrats, Republicans would control both the State Assembly and State Senate with typically two-thirds majorities thanks to the gerrymandered district maps. When Democrats challenged the districts, the right-leaning courts claimed an inability to change them, all the way to the US Supreme Court. The only way to end the Republican strangle-hold was a multi-step, decade-long project of rebalancing the state court, which could eventually lead to new, fair electoral maps.
The Power of One WI Supreme Court Seat
In 2023, after more than 10 years of fighting, Wisconsin Democrats finally broke through. Voters soundly elected Janet Protasiewicz, giving liberals the majority on the WI Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years. Republicans knew this spelled the end of their overwhelming state control against voter will and they were right. With Protasiewicz on the court, Wisconsin’s Democratic Governor Evers signed new, fair electoral maps into law following a successful court challenge to the old maps. Those maps went into effect for the 2024 elections.
Most know Wisconsin for having gone for Trump in 2024. But Wisconsin also re-elected its US Senator, Democrat Tammy Baldwin, last year. Most incredible, though, were the state election results. Pre-Protasiewicz, pre-fair electoral maps, the WI State Assembly split 64 Republicans to 34 Democrats. Under the new 2024 fair maps, WI Republicans lost 10 State Assembly seats. In the State Senate, Republicans went from a 12 seat majority, with 22 Rs to 10 Democrats, to just a 3-seat majority, rebalanced to 18 Rs to 15 Ds.
This Seat Holds the Keys to Power
This was and is the power of a single Wisconsin Supreme Court seat. Which brings us to today. On Apr 1, 2025, Wisconsin voters will once again determine the make-up of their Supreme Court. Last year, a liberal justice announced her retirement, throwing the balance of the WI court up for grabs again.
Millions are pouring in. According to NBC news, “Democratic megadonor George Soros gave $1 million to the Wisconsin Democratic Party in January, while LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman contributed $250,000. On the Republican side, megadonor Elizabeth Uihlein gave $650,000 and Joe Ricketts, the founder of TD Ameritrade, chipped in $500,000 to the Wisconsin GOP.” And while the election seems to be focused on local issues for now, national politics are ramping up, with Elon Musk recently weighing in, saying “Very important to vote Republican for the Wisconsin Supreme Court to prevent voting fraud!” which of course of there is no evidence of.
Bring the Will to Win
Often, we run the numbers and tell you to shy away from races with outsized price tags. But this toss-up seat is worth the fight and worth your dollars. In 2023, with abortion rights top of mind, the WI state party mobilized an incredible turn out for this off-cycle election to power Protasiewicz’s victory and the court flip.
But today, Wisconsin voters are exhausted and it isn’t clear if the Democratic energy required to win again exists. While abortion continues to be a major issue, the reality is that it isn’t nearly as potent as it was in 2023.
I still have family in Wisconsin and they are raising the alarm. Democrats all over the country have pulled back, all of us wishing we could wish away our 2025 Trump reality. The energy and will to fight is just starting to come back, but we don’t have months to wallow. Wisconsin has less than 45 days. A 10-year term comes with this WI Supreme Court victory, meaning the next decade of state control could be what’s at risk once again.
We have 45 days to show Wisconsin we have their backs and that we will fight alongside them. Ben Wikler, head of the WI Democratic Party, has built one of the strongest Democratic state parties in the country. He and local Dems know how to win, but activating an exhausted electorate requires money- only turning out a small committed base won’t win this seat. The liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, a Madison state judge, is going up against Brad Schimel, a conservative judge and former Republican Attorney General. Every guess you have on their positions is accurate, but Schimel is widely believed to be a much stronger conservative candidate than Republicans had in 2023. This will not be a blow out, but she can win. Crawford needs our support.
A couple times a week, I get asked, ‘what can i do right now? Everything that is happening is so overwhelming.” This is what you do today. You join the fight to win a seat that will determine the power balance in Wisconsin, a state that time and again has national impact. It didn’t take Wisconsin one election to dig out from the damage of 2010 and it won’t fix everything from 2024 if we win this one seat. But a win here can protect the progress made AND set the tone for 2025, one that Democrats can build on later this November in state elections in Virginia and New Jersey, all building energy to take the 2026 midterms.
I’ve still got family in Wisconsin so I’m in this fight. I hope you are too. Time to lift our heads up, dig in and win.
Amber
___________________________________
Get the Path to Power.
Your money and time matters so make sure it counts when you donate it. If you like what we’re doing, please share Flip the States with a friend and ask them to sign up so they get analysis and recommendations like these. If you love what we are doing, send us a donation to help fund the work. We’re a registered 501c4 nonprofit and never take from donations that go directly to the candidates you choose to support.