Pennsylvania’s 7th District Impact Report:
Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley sent one of its own to Congress in 2024 — a ninth-generation hometown son, born in Allentown, educated at NYU and Harvard, twelve years in the Pennsylvania House. Republican Ryan Mackenzie had every reason to show up for this place. In his first year, he didn’t. Here’s the story of PA-7, why it’s our top ranked flip race in the country, and how we’ll be targeting it and Mackenzie as part of our Flip 5 to Take the House campaign. Our campaign will be going after Mackenzie now while he’s vulnerable, reminding his constituents how he picked Trump over them time and again, and laying the groundwork for a Democratic flip in November. Help us flip this seat and take back power by supporting our Flip 5 to Take the House campaign now.
The New Lehigh Valley
Let’s start with the numbers. Republican Ryan Mackenzie won Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District in 2024 by just over 4,000 votes — one of the narrowest margins in the country, averaging fewer than 15 votes per precinct. The Cook Partisan Voter Index rates the district at R+1 with a small Republican advantage, but the demographic changes, a microcosm of our national demographic changes, and MacKenzie following the party line no matter the impact to his constituents tells a bigger story of PA-7. It’s these reasons that underpin our 100 Impact Score ranking for PA-7 — literally our highest ranking in the 2026 cycle, naming it the most flippable seat in the country.
Allentown, the anchor of the 7th, was 12% Latino in 1990. Today it is roughly 54% Latino — predominantly Puerto Rican and Dominican. Pennsylvania’s Latino eligible voter population has more than doubled since 2000. The Lehigh Valley has become one of the most demographically dynamic regions in the Northeast.
And the economy, before Trump’s tariff’s, had been booming in ways that cut directly against Mackenzie’s record. Manufacturing and logistics jobs have grown 71% since 2010 — three times the national rate. Mack Trucks. Crayola. Martin Guitar. Bosch Rexroth. These are the workshops and warehouses that employ the Valley’s families. They are also exactly the kind of advanced manufacturing and supply-chain jobs most exposed to the Trump administration’s tariff agenda — an agenda Mackenzie has voted for 98% of the time. Steel tariffs that raise the cost of making a Mack truck. Aluminum tariffs that hit the Valley’s food processors. Parts that cascade through every factory floor from Easton to Emmaus. In fact, Mack truck just announced up to 350 layoffs due to Trump’s tariffs.That is a record that ignores his own constituents. That is a rubber stamp for Trump.
Mackenzie, a ninth-generation Lehigh Valley native, was born in Allentown in 1982. Parkland High School, NYU undergrad, Harvard MBA. Twelve years in the Pennsylvania House before jumping to Congress. A local success story by any measure. But if you thought that meant he’d show up for his constituents, you’d be wrong. He hasn’t. And given this Republican party, it shouldn’t be a surprise.
In his first months in office, constituents launched a weekly protest outside his district office — “Mondays with Mackenzie” — because Mackenzie himself was nowhere to be found. No in-person town halls. No community forums. When Democrats organized a People’s Town Hall in Bethlehem, 400 people showed up with a line out the door. Mackenzie’s response? A telephone town hall, announced less than 24 hours before the Bethlehem event. A counterprogram, not a conversation. He knows his constituents are watching. He’s just hoping they’ll just stop.
In March 2025, he voted for the budget resolution that paved the way for Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” — projected to push 11.4 million Americans off Medicaid and 3 million off SNAP. In a district anchored by Allentown, where Medicaid runs deep through working families -serving 20% of the district, including over 35% of children- it was a vote directly against the people he serves.
Then came the Epstein files. Mackenzie voted with House leadership to block release of federal records related to Jeffrey Epstein. When a discharge petition — signed by every House Democrat and four Republicans — forced the issue open, making it obvious where the vote and public sentiment were landing, he suddenly announced he’d vote yes. Transparency, he said, mattered after all. The pattern is clear: Mackenzie votes with Trump. The public erupts. Mackenzie finds his courage. Mackenzie issues a statement.
Given the recent swings in special elections towards Democrats, PA-7 should be a slam dunk. But guess what, beating a Republican party that picked a corrupt, convicted assaulter who was pushing election lies and fomented an insurrection should have been a slam dunk too. We aren’t taking anything for granted.
Our Flip 5 to Take the House campaign is focused on reminding Mackenzie’s constituents that when it came to showing up for them or doing Trump’s bidding, he chose Trump every time – resulting in lost healthcare, sky-rocketing gas prices and inflation driven by an incoherent tariff policy for the people of PA-7. This is why our campaign plans to target his frustrated voters now. Join us in making sure Mackenzie’s constituents don’t forget how he betrayed them.
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