I’m pretty sure my righteous anger – at Trump, Musk, all Republicans supporting his assault on our country and democracy, and even the Democrats who helped him pass a budget Friday – could compete with just about anyone’s right now. The anger out there is palpable and the txts and emails I received the last few days from friends about yesterday’s budget vote reflected it. So it’s no surprise that all of us who are angry are desperate to channel our rage… and that fundraising emails and txts are trying to capitalize on it. Plenty of these are for good causes and really well intentioned efforts. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t scrutinize whether we should put our money in those places and races.
Democrat Josh Weil is one of them. He’s trying to flip FL-6, a US House seat vacated recently thanks to a Trump appointment, in an April 1 Special Election. Wow would I love for this seat to flip. I commend Josh’s efforts to run for this seat. It’s true and right that we can’t win where we don’t compete, and candidates like Josh need funding to move the needle in districts like these over time. It’s also a reality though that it is extremely unlikely that Josh can flip this seat no matter how much money Dems give him. His the truth about Florida-6:
Here is the snapshot of our analysis. Take a look at the District Trend: it shows Republican wins going back to 2016. Before that, this seat was held by now Republican Gov Ron DeSantis and our data, which goes back to 2000, shows a Democrat hasn’t won this seat once in the last 25 years. Instead, as you can see in the trend (& if you go on the site, you can see in more detail by hovering over it), the number of votes the Republican has won by has gone UP over the last 10 years. While I certainly believe in investing in places to build Democratic support over time, this isn’t a close district.
In addition, according to Weil’s campaign, it has already raised $8.3 MILLION! The average US House congressional campaign raises $2M-$4M, with a very expensive and extremely competitive race raising about $7M-$9M. Point being, this campaign is already extremely well funded, even if it was extremely competitive, which it isn’t. It’s just true that Weil doesn’t need more funding. Do not put more money into this race because it won’t change the outcome.
There are places we can channel our anger and our dollars to change outcomes though. Here’s three places our money can make a difference:
1. WI Supreme Court race on April 1: very competitive and currently tied in polling. Support a female Supreme Court justice
2. Virginia Governor Race in Nov 25: we rank a 100/100 >> it will be very competitive, a huge sign of Dems potential in 26 and will result in VA’s FIRST EVER FEMALE Governor- let’s make it a Democrat!
3. Upcoming special election in AZ-7 following Representative Grijalva’s recent passing. This is not yet announced but will be important to protect this seat.
I get it. This isn’t what you want to hear- that a well intentioned Democrat running for a seat we desperately want to flip isn’t going to win, and that you shouldn’t send the campaign any more money. I get it that we all need to feel like we can make a difference. I’m hear to tell you – you can. You can in WI, in VA, coming up in AZ. Don’t give up, just refocus.
