It might be Inauguration Day but there’s no need to look to Trump today.
Instead, I’ve got a story about Democrats, all of us, and why we are where we are. It starts with where we are today, feeling angry and dejected, and with Republicans fully in control of our federal government and in control of almost 60% of our state governments. But it doesn’t end there, or at least it doesn’t have to.
In 2024, there were literally thousands of state and federal races across the country. Thousands of races and candidates competing for our attention, and without Flip the States, virtually no way to judge which races were most important for Democrats to take power across the country. The only races we knew for sure to support, the Presidential and high profile Senate races, are also the races where more and more money would only go so far. In theory, more money in any race is helpful.
But the truth is the vast majority of races are safe, more than 70% according to our data.
This doesn’t mean Democrats in these races don’t need any money or don’t need to compete, but it’s certainly true that a huge number have a much lower need. You wouldn’t know that based on the number of emails and txts begging for money though, treating every race as equal in need and in opportunity. I don’t even blame them because that is their job- to get money, to get attention, to get support.
But whose job is it to help us, the Democratic grassroots, know where our efforts are most critical in the fight to take power across the country? No one in the Democratic party apparently. The DNC, DSCC, DCCC, DLCC- so many organizations, but none helping us decide across them all. This is why we built Flip the States. And the data is damning.
Our proprietary algorithm ranks state and federal legislative races in all 50 states on an equal playing field. Our Impact Score measures where your dollars go the farthest and mean the most – meaning we identify competitive races that we can and must win. We compared our Impact Scores to the 2024 election results, with astounding results. Billions, literally billions, are going to non-competitive races. Meanwhile, races we could win are going underfunded.
Let’s look at the 2024 US House elections as an example:
No wonder we don’t hold power. The huge majority of our dollars, and likely our time, aren’t going to the highest priority opportunities and aren’t going to the races that will ultimately decide if Democrats will gain or lose power.
What could we achieve if we focused our efforts?
What if we stopped giving to just any or every race or candidate and started with those that could deliver Democratic majorities across the country. This is the power-building we are talking about. And the collective we, all of us now power-building Democrats, can change this. We can do this.
Many organizations give advice, many endorse candidates, many offer recommendations through the lens of a particular policy issue, particular chamber or state. Only Flip the States looks across the entire system and measures on the most foundational terms – building power for Democrats, for all of us. We all have policy priorities – good, keep them. To advance any of them, all of them, we must build up. Target the biggest opportunities and then build power and governing majorities. And you don’t just have to trust us that we know best- we give you the data so you can see for yourself.
Yes today is painful. The next four years will be painful. But the solution isn’t ignoring and it isn’t doing the same thing we’ve done before that got us here. Focused and determined. We can change this. Look for our first race recommendations coming out this week because the time to build is now.
Amber
PS. Did I mention we outperformed the DCCC? We need a strong Democratic Party so I’m not saying, but I’m saying… we crushed it. We need your help to get the word out. Share our Path to Power newsletter with friends and tell them to join us or donate to our all volunteer work.
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