Midterms: Get Out of Your Bubble

by

There’s plenty of outrage so we aren’t going to do that. Instead, we’re creating a place with new tips, tools, insights, sources, and stories that can help us understand how to win this November.

đŸ€ đŸ’°

You might be ready to go all in on Texas because it’s true, chances got better to flip it’s Senate seat Tuesday night, BUT there’s a more strategic play here and here’s why.

As Time lays out, Paxton has blown a $250 million hole in the Republican Senate map that nobody in the GOP budgeted for. Texas was supposed to be a free hold seat — instead Republicans now face a nine-figure liability with a candidate sitting on $2.3 million cash against Democrat James Talarico’s $49.3 million. When you do the math, Talarico’s chances of flipping the seat are still at best 1 in 3 but here’s the more interesting part of putting TX in play: Democrats’ most realistic path to flipping the Senate runs through North Carolina’s open seat, Maine, Alaska and Ohio — none of which get easier for Republicans when they’re suddenly scrambling to defend a state they assumed was settled. We’re heads down on the House right now but this is worth a read if you’re wanting to donate smart to Flip the Senate.

👀😈

The Paxton money problem doesn’t stop at the Senate — it flows directly into House races, where it makes our work to flip the House even stronger.

While the Republican Senate and House campaign committees are separate, they certainly share donors, meaning the fall out from Texas $250+ Million hole is going to cause pain across the spectrum for Republicans…. and we are all for it. NBC breaks down the House level, where the NRCC is already stretched having to defending 25–30 vulnerable incumbents across 42 competitive districts — nine of which Harris carried in 2024. Expect the Republican House and Senate campaign committees to start fighting for the finite attention of Republican mega-bundlers who now have to choose between salvaging a Senate seat and protecting the House. There’s a bigger opening now and it’s time to pounce.

🙌

Donate today to our Flip 5 to Take The House Campaign
Take direct action to target vulnerable Republicans this Spring. Our campaign to flip 5 seats is focused on targeting Republican incumbents and tying them to Trump’s abuse of power and corruption. We can take power together. Support our campaign now.

đŸ˜€đŸ’°đŸ’°đŸ’°

It’s always all about the money. The corruption that matters most in 2026 isn’t hidden — it’s being done in plain sight, and the Brennan Center just documented exactly why that’s so hard to stop.

We keep saying it- one of the thing voters of tiring of fast with Trump is the grift and corruption. In an NPR interview this week, Brennan Center president Michael Waldman walked through the specifics: Trump bought Boeing stock before a China trip that produced a 200-plane sale, invested in Oracle while it was winning federal contracts, and his sons received a stake in a Kazakh mining company that just landed a $1.6 billion federal deal. None of it has been prosecuted because the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling blocks any inquiry into a president’s motivations — even when the act looks and smells exactly like a bribe. The full Brennan Center analysis is worth reading — and a reminder that a Democratic House with real subpoena power is the most direct check available.

♀♂ 

Go beyond the “manosphere.” Here’s a much more thoughtful and compelling case for the ideology that’s organizing MAGA — and “masculinism” turns out to be a more coherent worldview than most Democrats want to admit.

This Plain English episode with Derek Thompson features journalist Helen Lewis, who argues that a nostalgia-driven backlash against feminism — built around traditional gender roles and the conviction that men have been systematically left behind — is now rivaling MAGA itself as the organizing force for a significant chunk of working-class male AND female voters. This isn’t fringe; it’s showing up in polling and increasingly in the rhetoric of Republicans positioning themselves for 2028. The strategic implication isn’t to match the message — it’s to understand that economic anxiety alone doesn’t explain why these voters moved, and that winning competitive House districts will require an affirmative pitch that actually reckons with what’s driving them. This fascinating listen (or YouTube watch) is worth it.

If you like what we’re doing, please share Flip the States with a friend and ask them to sign up so they get analysis and recommendations like these. If you love what we are doing, send us a donation to help fund the work. We’re a registered 501c4 nonprofit and never take from donations that go directly to the candidates you choose to support.

Comments are closed.

Close Search Window
Designed by Dannci